| ||||||||||||
| Morningstar.com The allure of investing in a diversified company is reasonably justified. These mature companies tend to grow faster than GDP, throw off lots of cash, and have survived long enough for investors to feel comfortable that they won't disappear during a recession. The challenge is that these companies plow a fair amount of capital back into their businesses, making it difficult to gauge the real success of these firms. The result is that while some companies get proper respect, a number of companies tend to trade at a discount to the sum of their parts. While many accept the logic for the discount as an academic fact, a far more important lesson for investors lies in what the companies are actually doing with marginal capital and what return they earn on it. We can perform this analysis on firms in any industry, but the diversified space makes a poignant starting point, since these companies generally have strong cash flows, solid balance sheets, and heavy capital investing programs. Plowing Cash Back into the Business The median plowback rate within our diversified universe is 16% of sales. Roper Industries (NYSE:ROP - News) and Danaher (NYSE:DHR - News) lead the pack. Put simply, these companies have invested heavily for growth and made big bets on the future, with both of these companies setting aside over 20% of sales to acquire new businesses and grow internally. Conversely, companies like Emerson (NYSE:EMR - News) and United Technologies (NYSE:UTX - News) dwell at the bottom of the list with fairly minimal new investment in their respective businesses. The low levels of Emerson and United Technologies are of particular note because both companies have strong balance sheets and dominant positions in their markets. In our opinion, results from Emerson and United Technologies suggest that either few growth opportunities meet management's investment criteria or management is content harvesting yesterday's work and building cash. Incremental Return on Investment Over the same five-year period as above, we took the change in average operating cash flows and divided by the change in the invested capital base. Because cash flows are inherently lumpy, we averaged them over a three-year period. This should tell us how much new cash new investments generated relative to the new funding required to generate that return. ABB, Honeywell (NYSE:HON - News), and Emerson stand out as firms that earn exceptional returns on new capital deployed. ABB shed some capital-intensive businesses and had the powerful tail wind of the emerging-markets power boom, but the sustainability of these incremental returns is suspect. Relief from restructuring has already taken hold and demand for power products has waned recently. In the case of Emerson, the company spends growth periods milking its assets and uses recessions to reinvest. Also baked into the numbers is the company's liquidation/divestiture of capital-intensive businesses in exchange for asset-light businesses. Through the period, Emerson returned $7.5 billion, or 7.5% of sales, to shareholders. More important for investors, the company is content returning excess cash to the shareholder. The title of empire builder likely does not apply. Honeywell has spent much of the last decade in restructuring mode, exiting high capital intensity/low margins businesses, instead plowing capital into aerospace and automation. On the other end of the spectrum, Philips Group (NYSE:PHG - News) and Ingersoll Rand (NYSE:IR - News) have returned less than 10% on new investments during the same five-year horizon. Each company has a variety of reasons for fitting in the suboptimal category, but the general culprit in each case is a big acquisition that hasn't delivered the results necessary to justify the deal. Still, it is comforting to see that companies are generally putting capital to work at rates that are higher than the cost of capital. The Effects of Globalization Summary Roper and Danaher have solid reputations as savvy acquirers and operators that command some of the highest valuations within the diversified space, but our research shows that these companies are no better than average at investing the next dollar. While these firms are not necessarily destroying value, we think investors should buy firms like Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW - News), Emerson, or Honeywell when valuations are attractive. Although this analysis is unlikely to change any of our fair values, it does provide a good framework for identifying those companies that we most trust to earn a decent return. Morningstar Premium Members get access to over 3,900 Stock and Fund Analyst Reports, Analyst Picks, and award-winning portfolio tools. Learn More.
| ||||||||||||